Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The typical number of per-day killings each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent government figures. However, security experts have cautioned that murder figures could fail to point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This information was provided by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had during these months is remarkably notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the smallest amount of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers cautioned that relying on murder data to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is notably true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for gauging the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it could hide periods when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the country to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.