Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.