The Former President's Ukraine Peace Initiative Represents a Benefit to Putin

For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to take a firm position on Ukraine. Following making threats of "significant repercussions" in August should Russia's president carried on hindering ceasefire talks, Trump ultimately enacted major sanctions on the Russian primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European input, the former president has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality weaken that same independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his corporate past, Trump continues to treat the war as a mere land disagreement, as if handing Putin a part of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. However, Russia's war is not only about dominating a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear desire to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in position the presently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unable to capture in over a decade of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely compromised.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that are a essential obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed route to the capital if he subsequently opt to resume the war.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a move that would make renewed hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the size of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative sets no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected government as extremists, the proposal states: "Every radical belief system and activities must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable treaties in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should the international community trust Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international protection assurances. Although the initiative promises a "decisive coordinated defense action" should Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the details vary from unclear to troubling. The plan would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent member states from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from rebuilding his diminished forces, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a armed reaction. Yet unlike a capable national defense – Ukraine's best protection against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, including the US administration, to act with force to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not